U.S. Recession Risk Rises To 35% (April 2025 - Novanews)
“Finance is not merely about making money. It's about achieving our deep goals and protecting the fruits of our labor.” — Robert J. Shiller.
Easter’s almost here — a great reminder that renewal might be closer than we think. And just like the seasons, real estate and the economy are shifting, too. Here’s what’s happening right now!
TODAY'S TOPICS
U.S. recession risk rises to 35%.
The S&P 500 is headed for its biggest quarterly loss in almost 3 years.
A crackdown on immigration is straining businesses.
A new major player appears in the U.S. mortgage market.
This is where the Easter Bunny actually comes from.
QUIZ
1. Why is Easter called Easter?
It was named after a spring goddess
It comes from the Latin word for “egg”
It's an acronym for "East Terra”Marie Curie
2. The Vegreville Pysanka, one of the world's largest Easter eggs, is located in Vegreville, Canada. How much does this monumental egg weigh?
2,500 pounds
5,000 pounds
10,000 pounds
REAL ESTATE
Current mortgage rates
30-year – 6.76%
15-year – 6.15%
Real estate news
A new major player appears in the U.S. mortgage market. Rocket Cos. is buying mortgage company Mr. Cooper Group in a $9.4 billion all-stock deal. This will create a new mortgage giant handling $2.1 trillion in loans for nearly 10 million customers. Learn more
Privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could drive mortgage rates even higher. As the government looks to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, experts warn that this could drive rates higher and make homeownership even harder. Learn more
U.S. ECONOMY
Inflation
Current US inflation rate: 2.8%
Unemployment
Current US unemployment rate: 4.1%
FED rate
Fed funds interest rate: 4.3%
U.S. economy news
As immigration crackdown intensifies, businesses struggle to find workers. With deportations on the rise, companies that depend on immigrant workers are feeling the pressure. Many are now pushing for new laws to ensure they have a steady, legal workforce. Learn more
Goldman Sachs raised the chances of a U.S. recession to 35%. It’s mostly due to Trump’s upcoming tariffs that could shake up the global economy. They now expect three interest rate cuts this year and lower growth in both the U.S. and Europe, warning that Europe might even slide into a mild recession. Learn more
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
China’s manufacturing expands as the economy shows resilience. China’s manufacturing sector grew in March despite looming U.S. tariffs, signaling strength in the world’s second-largest economy. Learn more
German inflation drops to 2.3%, which is lower than expected. This drop strengthens the argument for the European Central Bank to consider cutting interest rates soon. Learn more
STOCK EXCHANGE
Stocks recommended by experts
Top 3 best-performing S&P 500 stocks of 2025 (year-to-date gains):
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) – 292.81%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) – 170.19%
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) – 100.67%
Stock market news
The S&P 500 is headed for its biggest quarterly loss in almost 3 years. RBC Capital’s Lori Calvasina warns that breaking below mid-March lows could trigger a “growth scare.” This may lead to a bigger downturn of 14-20% from its February peak. Learn more
COFFEE BREAK
Fun news
3 curious facts about Easter:
The Easter Bunny actually originated in Germany. 1600s German folklore featured the "Osterhase," a hare that left colored eggs for well-behaved children.
Pretzels were once a popular Easter treat! Their twisted shape symbolizes hands in prayer, making them a fitting holiday snack.
Question of the Month
Do you foresee a drop on home prices if people can no longer afford to pay? Sincerely, VelascoUSA.
Hello VelascoUSA. Very good question. Here are my observations:
Many buyers anticipate a drop in home prices, leading the real estate market to a wave of foreclosures. However, experts don't believe this will happen because, unlike the 2008 crisis, loans are issued today after an extensive evaluation of the buyer's creditworthiness to ensure that they are in the right financial position to buy. This practice wasn't standard in 2008, as many buyers were able to get financing without any prior evaluation of their credit or financial position. Therefore, not as many homes are expected to enter the market due to foreclosures, thus, a drastic drop in home prices is not expected.
Investor of the month
Stanley Druckenmiller
An American investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist, Stanley Druckenmiller is the former chairman and president of Duquesne Capital. In 2009, he was the most generous donor in America, giving $705 million to support medical research, education, and anti-poverty programs. By 2019, he had big investments in companies like Microsoft, Abbott Laboratories, Salesforce, Delta Airlines, and American Airlines. Learn more
QUIZ ANSWERS
It was named after a spring goddess
5,000 pounds
CONTENT YOU CAN’T MISS
This month’s recommended book
by George Akerlof and Robert Shiller
In this book, economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller highlight how human psychology — like trust and fairness — shapes economic behavior, reviving the concept of “animal spirits.”
The housing market shifted in favor of buyers
Is it really a buyer’s market? Some say yes — but my $2M deal says otherwise. Let’s look at the numbers.
9000+ properties - How to build and manage them
In this video, we go behind the scenes and reveal how investors are growing wealth in Florida’s hot housing market.
